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The most common location of tropical cyclone genesis shifts from the eastern Atlantic, back into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in October. The best chance of tropical development over the next 5 days is just off the east coast of Florida.
Ryan Truchelut/WeatherTiger

It’s a transitional week in the the Tropics, though of course, not an inactive one as that would be absurd.

Hurricane season is in the process of shifting gears, as a couple of storms from the last batch of Cape Verde activity wind down over the next five days and the focus shifts to the Gulf and Caribbean.

Category 1 Hurricane Maria is still out there, currently a couple hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras. Maria is a sprawling, massive storm, so even though it is well offshore, tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding are occurring in the North Carolina Outer Banks. These impacts should come to an end soon as a front moving toward the U.S. East Coast hustles Maria east and out-to-sea. 

East of Bermuda, tiny Hurricane Lee has intensified over the last couple days and now has winds of 115 mph, making it a category 3 storm and the fifth major hurricane of 2017. Kudos to Lee for being the first of those five not to bother anyone. Lee will also accelerate north and east into the open Atlantic and lose tropical characteristics this weekend. All in all, September 2017 goes down in history as the single most active calendar month ever in the Atlantic Ocean, with almost as much storm energy generated in one month as is typical of nearly two entire average hurricane seasons.

Unfortunately — to quote the late great Billy Mays — but wait, there’s more. The most common location of tropical cyclone genesis shifts from the eastern Atlantic, back into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in October. In true 2017…