Expert Week 6 NFL Picks: Advice for Pick ’em, confidence, survivor leagues | Fantasy

The number crunchers at are back with tips and expert analysis for your Week 6 NFL picks for pick ’em pools and survivor leagues. If you want a data-driven edge in football pools and betting, check out, where you can find advice for NFL betting picks, NFL pick ’em pool picks, and NFL survivor pool picks.

The Week 6 NFL slate looks much more lopsided than last week, which was chock full of close matchups. Five teams are currently favored by at least 9.5 points, and the public as a whole almost always overestimates big favorites.

NFL pick ’em advice, strategy

To see better results in NFL pools, every pick needs to be evaluated on a risk/reward basis, and you should always be looking for smart opportunities to go against the crowd. It might sound simple, but people often forget that the only way to win a pick ’em pool is to get some picks right that your opponents get wrong.

In last week’s article we pointed out how Baltimore was being highly underrated by the public and explained why it made sense to go with Cincinnati over Buffalo.

With that dynamic in mind, here are four games that should be on your radar this week.

Week 6 NFL Picks: Early expert predictions, analysis

Big Favorite At A Reasonable Price

Denver vs. New York Giants

Like we said in the opening, the public often gives too much respect to big favorites. Coming off a bye week, the Broncos (-11.5 spread) are not only the second-most likely team to win this week according to Vegas, but they are also the least popular pick out of the five big favorites. So, if you want to make a big upset play, you can do much better from a risk/reward standpoint than picking the Giants.

Decent Favorite With Value

New Orleans vs. Detroit

New Orleans is a solid favorite in this game (-5.5 spread, almost a 70 percent chance to win), yet just over half of the public is currently picking them. That’s a bit surprising given that the game is in New…

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