French overseas territories and French residents in the United States and Canada began voting on Saturday in the country’s presidential election, a day before the main first-round of a poll that could change the global political landscape.
Of nearly 47 million registered French voters, there are fewer than a million resident in far-flung places like French Polynesia in the South Pacific, and Guadeloupe, French Guiana and Martinique in the Caribbean. They vote early so as not to be influenced by the mainland results, due on Sunday evening at around 1800 GMT.
The first round will send two of 11 candidates into a run-off vote in two weeks’ time to pick a new president for France, a core member of the European Union and the NATO alliance, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and the world’s fifth largest economy.
With two anti-globalisation candidates whose policies could break up the EU among the four front-runners, the vote is of major significance to the international political status quo and to investment markets.
Coming after the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States and Britain’s Brexit vote to quit the EU, few experts dare rule out a shock, and all of the likely outcomes will usher in a period of political uncertainty in France.
Polls make centrist and pro-European Emmanuel Macron the favourite, but he has no established party of his own and is a relatively unknown political quantity.
‘The election of Marine Le Pen would make Brexit look trivial by comparison’
– James Shields, French politics professor at Aston University
His three close rivals, according to voting surveys, include the anti-EU, anti-immigration National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who would dump the euro currency and revive the French franc. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to rip up international trade treaties and quit NATO, while conservative François Fillon’s reputation has been sullied by a nepotism scandal.
“The election of either Le Pen or Mélenchon would put Paris on a fast-track collision course with (EU officials in) Brussels,” said James Shields, professor of French politics at Aston University in Britain.
“The election of Marine Le Pen would make Brexit look trivial by comparison.”
Voters face long lines in Montreal
Although pollsters put Le Pen in second place behind Macron in the first round, she is seen as unlikely to win the second. Mélenchon, by contrast, could take the presidency according to some scenarios.
Polls in the dying days of the campaign put all the candidates roughly on between a fifth and a quarter of the vote, with around five percentage points or less separating them — threatening the margin of error for polling…