CLOSE

The U.S. Senate rejected a Republican measure to repeal portions of former President Obama’s health care reform law. Republicans John McCain, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins joined the Democrats in voting down the measure, 49-51. (July 28)
AP

WASHINGTON – The Senate’s effort to repeal and replace Obamacare collapsed early Friday morning, and President Trump has already replied that he is ready to “let Obamacare implode” and then reopen negotiations.

Absent some kind of legislation, what is going to happen to the Affordable Care Act? Here’s what the death of “repeal and replace” could mean for you.

Will Obamacare fall apart on its own?

Although Republicans have argued they must act because Obamacare is collapsing under its own weight, independent analyses come to a different conclusion. Republicans are primarily talking about the health insurance marketplaces created by the Affordable Care Act for people who don’t get coverage through an employer or a government program like Medicare or Medicaid. (About 7% of the country buys coverage on the individual market.)

If the law is not changed, the marketplaces will be largely stable in most parts of the country, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. And participating insurers are on track to have their best year in the marketplaces since they began in 2014, according to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation.

But I’ve heard insurance companies are pulling out of the marketplaces?

Some major players, such as Anthem, plan to no longer offer coverage in many places next year in part because of uncertainty about federal policy. But Centene, another insurer, is expanding its coverage areas. Centene CEO Michael Neidorff said Tuesday the company’s marketplace business “continues to be particularly strong.”

Still, those buying coverage on the exchanges are…