You don’t win an NFL picks pool by following the herd. Rather, maximizing your edge to win a pick ’em pool requires you to make picks that strike the right balance of risk and potential reward. Here, we’re going to review some of the key strategies for winning NFL pick ’em pools and highlight four Week 2 games you need to have on your radar screen.
This analysis is brought to you by TeamRankings, a site that has provided data-driven picks, tools, and analysis for football and bracket pools since 2000. You can check out our football pool picks, NFL survivor picks, and NFL spread picks.
NFL pick ’em advice, strategy
At TeamRankings.com, we’ve spent over a decade researching office pool strategy. After testing hundreds of theories and simulating millions of football pools, one key finding rises above the rest.
The biggest and most dependable advantage you can exploit in an NFL pick ’em pool doesn’t come from luck or from being an expert on NFL teams and matchups. Those things help, of course, but luck is fleeting and very few human “experts” consistently out-predict the Vegas lines.
To play an NFL pool like a true pro, you first need to understand the context of your pool (e.g. the number of entries, the scoring system, the prize structure, your current position in the standings), and then anticipate how your opponents are likely to fill out their pick sheets.
Using that knowledge, you can adjust your own picking strategy to take the smartest gambles with your picks, and identify which upset picks — if any — make the most sense this week. (If all this sounds like too much work, our NFL pick ’em pool picks can do it for you.)
Recap Of last Week’s advice
To give some specific examples of what we mean, before we get to the Week 2 breakdown let’s review some Week 1 advice that we published last week over at FantasyPros. We said:
- Don’t be tempted to pick the Jets over the Bills — it’s not worth the risk. New York’s odds to upset…